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I ramble about turmeric and discuss some points from VivaFrei’s vlog about the legal, economic, and social consequences of the government’s reaction to the Coronvirus Pandemic.

Viva’s vlog is in the form of a discussion between three lawyers one of whom agrees with the governments response (more or less) and one that disagrees strongly.

Here is the link:

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My shitty notes for what it’s worth:

Viva Frei

Robert Barnes

Nate Broady

There is a problem with mass testing

US has an unprecedented economy based on overnight trades of debt.

“If writing checks could solve problems the Soviet Union would still exist.”

A few month shutdown is what led to the great depression.

US is in the worst possible situation to survive this.

Our supply chains are a major issue.

33 min in.

Reporting raw numbers without context causes fear.

This new virus rate is thirty times more deadly than flu rate. This was a bogus stat. And it’s bogusness was rarely questioned. It was bad math based on missing data point.

Scott Adams and others on the bandwagon of “it’s not just the flu” are assholes. There’s not enough info to know.

Early on viruses are bad and then after going through most vulnerable rate goes down.

The fed is on a defacto policy to keep interest rates under 4%. Because people wouldn’t buy it otherwise. So they are under enormous pressure to keep the repo markets at a certain rate.

Is this scale of QE going to have counterproductive results.

Speech control, governmental control, and YT = Creepy.

This situation is a statists delight.

China bought up all the respirators.

China covered stuff up, shoulda controlled wet markets, etc.

Epoch Times = Chinese Americans very critical of China

“He who defines the terms wins the debate.” – debaters, lawyers tip

Things in New York are getting bad.

Anecdotal vs Scientific

Science is abductive

You don’t have a lot of evidence with a lot of evidence

Projections from a small amount of data

Looking at data and modelling says this a choice between the economy and two million peoples lives.

The infection rate is what’s different from the flu.

Harvard guy said 40 percent infection rate and predicted school shutdowns etc.

There is a real problem here.

The New Rochelle bomb

7 days later lawyer who had been tested positive was in a hospital with a ventilator

New York officials traced 50 Coronavirus to this one attorney (anecdotal)

Apparently contrary to UPS this shit can live on surfaces for a bit

Mass transit = HUUUUGE vector

50 ppl infect 50 people per initial 50 = exponential growth

Without intervention the curve will continue

Hence the measures

Overuns of healthcare systems occur due to this virus (my ob: or the panic/hypochoindria)

There is a high recovery rate (question)

Robert Barnes doesn’t like the universality of the model

3 big assumptions

is the exponential rate continuos

The curve is deceptive

Why not use money to build more facilities rather do a life threating shut down

3 key assumptions about the models

modeling is correct

mitigation efforts succed

mitigation doesnt have worse or other impacts

theres no evidence that these measures wouldnt be impacted by the measures themselves

this is what happens when we have pure academcis making polilcy decisions

the first thirty days of virus as data is nuts as proof

even in countries with shitty mitigation after thirty days there is a drop off

Peter Hitchens attacks the models

Correlation does not equal causation necessisarily

Israeli guy who said the virus would die out on its own in China and he was closer to correct than imperial college

First thirty days the virus is vicious but tapers off

Not everyone is equally susceptible

if its 50 to eighty percent infection why didnt it happen on the ship?

Infection is not the fear, hospitalization, and death is the fear

So the people at risk for this should be the ones quarantines etc

3 prexisting conditions on average for corona deaths in italy

we make these difficult decisions all the time

the backfire is terrifying

we live in a world of tradeoffs

who or what do you prioritize

people dont realize the economic extent of this

doesnt appear to have been a lot of estimates done

unemployment causes death and risk

persuaders

partisans

public

if exponential rate is correct theres going to be more than just the elderly overwhelming the hospitals

the law is more political than it is legal

courts have taken the contrarion perspective on the constitution

you cant legally defacto suspend the constitution

resteraunt guy had to lay off 80% of his staff – due to no business at resteraunt

people are afraid to deliver due to panic of this disease

all this stuff is based on speculative assumptions

these are troubling precedents

diamond princess

in academia consensus thought is encouraged and dissident discouraged

r naught (linear regression model) .975

95% of the press has gone let’s assume the models are right and let’s dismiss

dissident opinion

Israel is maximizing their hospitals and social distancing elderly and risky populatioin

but not doing anything else

if were waiting for a vaccine that could be 18 mo or never

the press is uninformed. This is a version of a coronavirus

normally during a pandemic ppl would go to the press but now

the public is so disgusted they arent

and this current coverage isnt helping

newsome made the mistake of saying hell send the national guard out

he doesnt actually wanna follow through with this

theyre doing this because theyre trying to test their limits

kungflu virus lol

south korea 663 thousand beds

331 million 925 thousand hospital beds if heard correctly for us

19 million ppl and 56 hospitals beds in NY

2.8 hospital beds/1000 ppl less than 3

every coutnry on the list has a higher per capita hospital bed than the us

15% of ppl who get this disease need a ventilator/hospital

it would take you one month to take care of just corona ppl

so this could get real bad hospitalization-wise

social distancing, isolation, etc

or you build extra beds which would probably cost less

than this current approoach

but you need doctors nurses etc to man these beds so…

the doctors that looked at say its natural (bioweapon question)

even if the worst case scenario is true it would be far less

disastrous thanthe economic fallout of this extreme quarantine

the big question is about the 30 days after the first 30 days

95% didn’t even get the infection when you adjust 4 age demographics

if the modellers turn out wrong then in the future

they are not going to get any confidence

academics do not have very good life experience

eric weinstein and peter theil

its why we havent invented anything of consequence for the

last 60 years

the problem is we cant judge whether or not the mitigation

effects work

the indefinite nature (there is no two weeks) is troublesome

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